Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 13 | 8.6 | 12.8% | 88 | 0.76% |
| 10-19 | 26 | 11.9 | 19.2% | 132 | 0.97% |
| 20-29 | 28 | 11.1 | 16% | 110 | 0.53% |
| 30-39 | 25 | 12.4 | 17% | 117 | 0.86% |
| 40-49 | 13 | 6.7 | 10.9% | 75 | 0.72% |
| 50-59 | 14 | 6.4 | 9.6% | 66 | 0.53% |
| 60-69 | 12 | 4.9 | 7.6% | 52 | 0.45% |
| 70+ | 8 | 3.9 | 6.8% | 47 | 0.45% |
| All ages | 139 | 65.9 | 100% | 687 | 0.66% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 08 | 14650 | 60688 | 505 | 123 | 594 |
| Oct 09 | 14716 | 60796 | 506 | 124 | 614 |
| Oct 10 | 14778 | 60888 | 507 | 124 | 627 |
| Oct 11 | 14778 | 60959 | 507 | 124 | 542 |
| Oct 12 | 14857 | 61052 | 508 | 124 | 564 |
| Oct 13 | 14907 | 61141 | 510 | 124 | 549 |
| Oct 15 | 15046 | 61387 | 512 | 125 | 687 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 08 | 10000 | 35691 | 403 | 112 | 547 |
| Oct 09 | 10036 | 35734 | 403 | 112 | 514 |
| Oct 10 | 10056 | 35792 | 407 | 112 | 471 |
| Oct 11 | 10080 | 35821 | 409 | 112 | 429 |
| Oct 12 | 10135 | 35878 | 416 | 112 | 410 |
| Oct 13 | 10169 | 35933 | 419 | 112 | 418 |
| Oct 15 | 10246 | 36046 | 421 | 112 | 468 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 10 | 5.3 | 11.3% | 53 | 0.68% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 6.3 | 16.9% | 79 | 0.94% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 3.9 | 9.6% | 45 | 0.63% |
| 30-39 | 11 | 6.3 | 15.2% | 71 | 0.84% |
| 40-49 | 17 | 6.0 | 13% | 61 | 0.79% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 4.7 | 10.9% | 51 | 0.53% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 5.1 | 11.1% | 52 | 0.62% |
| 70+ | 4 | 4.7 | 12% | 56 | 0.79% |
| All ages | 77 | 42.3 | 100% | 468 | 0.72% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 08 | 7666 | 23723 | 373 | 86 | 396 |
| Oct 09 | 7717 | 23759 | 374 | 89 | 424 |
| Oct 10 | 7736 | 23789 | 376 | 89 | 365 |
| Oct 11 | 7755 | 23815 | 379 | 89 | 341 |
| Oct 12 | 7765 | 23842 | 380 | 90 | 309 |
| Oct 13 | 7797 | 23884 | 380 | 90 | 311 |
| Oct 15 | 7849 | 23957 | 382 | 90 | 352 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 2.0 | 8.8% | 31 | 0.57% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 5.7 | 19.3% | 68 | 1.25% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 3.0 | 10.8% | 38 | 0.84% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 5.0 | 13.4% | 47 | 0.87% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 3.4 | 12.8% | 45 | 0.9% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 5.1 | 13.4% | 47 | 0.69% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 2.6 | 8.8% | 31 | 0.49% |
| 70+ | 7 | 4.6 | 12.8% | 45 | 0.71% |
| All ages | 52 | 31.4 | 100% | 352 | 0.78% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 08 | 15605 | 69314 | 625 | 104 | 558 |
| Oct 09 | 15650 | 69474 | 625 | 104 | 525 |
| Oct 10 | 15671 | 69567 | 625 | 104 | 470 |
| Oct 11 | 15703 | 69645 | 627 | 105 | 462 |
| Oct 12 | 15751 | 69822 | 631 | 106 | 448 |
| Oct 13 | 15791 | 69972 | 633 | 107 | 423 |
| Oct 15 | 15872 | 70273 | 639 | 107 | 468 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 6.0 | 12.4% | 58 | 0.49% |
| 10-19 | 13 | 6.4 | 15.2% | 71 | 0.43% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 5.4 | 14.3% | 67 | 0.31% |
| 30-39 | 17 | 8.6 | 17.7% | 83 | 0.61% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 6.1 | 11.3% | 53 | 0.39% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 4.9 | 11.1% | 52 | 0.37% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 2.9 | 8.1% | 38 | 0.27% |
| 70+ | 10 | 4.9 | 9.8% | 46 | 0.35% |
| All ages | 81 | 45.1 | 100% | 468 | 0.4% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 08 | 54183 | 412271 | 1870 | 335 | 1517 |
| Oct 09 | 54350 | 413271 | 1874 | 335 | 1507 |
| Oct 10 | 54418 | 413822 | 1874 | 335 | 1455 |
| Oct 11 | 54470 | 414430 | 1877 | 335 | 1304 |
| Oct 12 | 54699 | 415028 | 1882 | 339 | 1380 |
| Oct 13 | 54817 | 415808 | 1888 | 339 | 1429 |
| Oct 15 | 55088 | 417352 | 1901 | 340 | 1599 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 25 | 17.9 | 11.1% | 178 | 0.3% |
| 10-19 | 52 | 27.6 | 17.1% | 274 | 0.39% |
| 20-29 | 44 | 24.6 | 16% | 256 | 0.25% |
| 30-39 | 44 | 26.7 | 17.7% | 283 | 0.37% |
| 40-49 | 40 | 19.7 | 13.1% | 209 | 0.32% |
| 50-59 | 27 | 14.4 | 9.2% | 147 | 0.22% |
| 60-69 | 15 | 11.7 | 8.4% | 135 | 0.25% |
| 70+ | 24 | 11.3 | 7.3% | 117 | 0.24% |
| All ages | 271 | 153.9 | 100% | 1599 | 0.29% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 08 | 748854 | 3418430 | 39958 | 8107 | 26959 |
| Oct 09 | 751684 | 3425895 | 40132 | 8138 | 27003 |
| Oct 10 | 752808 | 3431283 | 40201 | 8139 | 25801 |
| Oct 11 | 754054 | 3434968 | 40279 | 8151 | 23675 |
| Oct 12 | 756855 | 3439820 | 40445 | 8194 | 23754 |
| Oct 13 | 759278 | 3447187 | 40599 | 8217 | 24474 |
| Oct 15 | 764340 | 3461958 | 40863 | 8239 | 27955 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 500 | 270.7 | 10.3% | 2877 | 0.45% |
| 10-19 | 988 | 501.9 | 18.8% | 5254 | 0.69% |
| 20-29 | 610 | 330.0 | 12.3% | 3431 | 0.45% |
| 30-39 | 778 | 401.1 | 14.9% | 4177 | 0.55% |
| 40-49 | 674 | 341.9 | 13% | 3647 | 0.52% |
| 50-59 | 619 | 304.3 | 11.6% | 3240 | 0.4% |
| 60-69 | 467 | 263.9 | 10% | 2801 | 0.37% |
| 70+ | 427 | 234.6 | 9% | 2528 | 0.39% |
| All ages | 5062 | 2648.3 | 100% | 27955 | 0.48% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.7 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-11-06 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 7936"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges